Create advanced Works with: Any AI

Estimation Workshop Guide

Table output Has example

Estimate effort honestly with a team.

The Open buttons send the prompt text as currently shown below to that site only when you click. Fill in the placeholders first.

Plan an estimation session. Work items to estimate: [WORK_ITEMS]. Team members and experience: [TEAM_EXPERIENCE]. Past data on similar work: [PAST_DATA].

Choose and explain three methods: three-point estimation (optimistic O, most likely M, pessimistic P; expected = (O + 4M + P) / 6; standard deviation = (P - O) / 6), relative sizing, and reference-class comparison with past projects.

Output format:
1. A worksheet applying three-point estimation to my items: Item | O | M | P | Expected | SD, with the arithmetic shown for two items.
2. Totals, and a range at roughly 80 percent confidence = expected total + 1.28 x square root of the sum of squared standard deviations.
3. A 60-minute agenda with timings.
4. Anti-anchoring rules (write estimates silently, then reveal) and a list of what to include (testing, review, meetings, waiting time).
5. Common errors: the planning fallacy, forgetting integration.
6. A calibration step comparing past estimates with actuals.
7. A message of about 100 words to the sponsor presenting the estimate as a range with assumptions.

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Replace each bracketed placeholder with your own details, then paste into Any AI or another assistant.

Task: migrate 4,000 customer records.
Optimistic 16 h, most likely 30 h, pessimistic 62 h.
Expected = (16 + 4 x 30 + 62) / 6 = 198 / 6 = 33 hours.
Standard deviation = (62 - 16) / 6 = 7.7 hours.
Second task: configure reports, O 10, M 14, P 30. Expected = (10 + 56 + 30) / 6 = 16 hours; SD = 3.3.
Total expected = 49 hours. Combined SD = square root of (7.7 squared + 3.3 squared) = square root of 70.2 = 8.4.
About 80 percent confidence: 49 + 1.28 x 8.4 = 59.8, so quote 49 to 60 hours.
Tell the sponsor the range and the assumptions behind it.

• estimation