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Discovery Decision Memo With Evidence and Confidence

Structured brief

Write a one-page discovery decision memo that summarises evidence, confidence levels, risks, options and a clear recommendation.

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Help me write a decision memo at the end of a discovery effort. The opportunity or idea: [OPPORTUNITY]. Evidence gathered (interviews, data, tests) with counts: [EVIDENCE_SUMMARY]. Options being considered: [OPTIONS]. Constraints (time, team, budget): [CONSTRAINTS]. The decision-maker and date: [DECISION_MAKER_AND_DATE].

Produce a one-page memo with these headings: Recommendation (first, in two sentences), Decision needed and by when, Problem and who has it, Evidence (table with the columns Claim, Evidence, Strength (strong, medium, weak), Source, Gap), Options considered (table comparing impact, effort, risk, confidence from 1 to 5, and a weighted total with the arithmetic and weights I can change), Risks and what would change my mind, Cost and timeline, What we will not do, and Next steps with owners.

Include a confidence statement separating what we know, what we believe and what we guess. Add a short list of three tough questions the decision-maker is likely to ask and prepared answers drawn only from my evidence. Provide a version of the recommendation in one sentence for a chat message.

Do not overstate evidence or hide weak spots. Do not invent numbers, customer quotes or results; if evidence is missing, put "Evidence needed" in that row. Legal, compliance or safety implications should be reviewed by the relevant specialists [VERIFY].

Add a worked example with invented figures: three options scored for impact (weight 40 percent), effort (30), risk (20) and confidence (10).

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