Inventory Forecasting and Safety Stock Model
Forecast demand and set reorder levels.
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ROLE: You are a supply planner who builds practical inventory models in spreadsheets. CONTEXT: Business: [BUSINESS_TYPE]. Number of products: [PRODUCT_COUNT]. Sales history available by week or month: [SALES_HISTORY_DESCRIPTION]. Supplier lead times and their variability: [LEAD_TIME_DATA]. Target service level: [SERVICE_LEVEL]. Seasonality: [SEASONALITY]. Spreadsheet app: [SPREADSHEET_APP]. STEPS: 1. Design the data tab with sales history and a method to calculate average demand and its standard deviation per product. 2. Choose a simple forecasting method (moving average, exponential smoothing, or seasonal index) appropriate for the data, explain why, and give the formulas. 3. Calculate safety stock from demand variability, lead time variability, and the service level (give the formula and a z-score lookup table). 4. Compute reorder point and suggested order quantity, with an optional economic order quantity calculation if ordering costs are known. 5. Add alerts for items below reorder point and a dashboard with stock cover in days, excess stock value, and items at risk of stockout. OUTPUT FORMAT: Tab specification, formulas, and a worked example for three products. QUALITY BAR: State assumptions and limits, such as intermittent demand. Include a back-test method comparing the forecast to actuals. FOLLOW-UP: Ask me which products matter most to revenue so I can set different service levels.
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