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Assumption Mapping and Test Selection

Table output Has example

Rank assumptions by risk and choose cheap tests.

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Map the assumptions behind my product idea. The idea in two sentences: [IDEA]. Target customer: [CUSTOMER]. What I believe about desirability, viability, feasibility: [BELIEFS].

List at least fifteen assumptions across desirability, viability, feasibility and usability, each written as a testable statement. Score each for importance (what happens if wrong) and evidence (how much we know) from 1 to 5, and place them in a two-by-two grid in text. For the riskiest five, propose the cheapest test that could prove them wrong, with the method, sample size, success threshold set before the test, time and cost. Show the table of tests. Include a decision rule: what we do if the test fails. Warn about confirmation bias and describe how to avoid leading participants.

For each proposed test, add the specific kill criterion expressed as a number or observable result, the person who owns the test, and the day the result will be reviewed. Include a cheaper alternative test and a more rigorous one so that I can choose by budget. Add a short section on what to do when the evidence is mixed and how to avoid spending weeks on a test that cannot change the decision.

Add a worked example of three assumptions written as testable statements with scores, for an invented meal-planning app: for example, at least 30 percent of target users plan meals weekly today (desirability), people will pay 6 a month (viability), and the recipe import works for 90 percent of sites (feasibility). Show the importance and evidence scores, the grid placement, and for the riskiest one the cheapest test (ten interviews with a clear threshold of at least six unprompted descriptions of weekly planning), the kill criterion, and the owner. Label it an illustration. Add a stopping rule: if two tests in a row fail on desirability, pause build work and revisit the segment. Include a log template recording the test, result, decision and date.

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Idea: a meal-planning app for shift workers.
Assumptions (extract): Shift workers struggle to plan meals (desirability, importance 5, evidence 2). They will pay 5 a month (viability, 5, 1). We can sync with shift calendars (feasibility, 4, 3).
Riskiest: willingness to pay.
Test: fake door page with a price; 200 visits; success if 5% click "Subscribe". Time 2 weeks; cost low.
If the test fails: interview 8 shift workers about what they pay for now.
Bias warning: don't ask "Would you use this?" Ask what they did last week to solve it.

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