Budget Assumptions Log
Keep forecasts honest and revisable.
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Create an assumptions log for my forecast. The forecast and key numbers: [FORECAST_SUMMARY]. Where the numbers came from: [DATA_SOURCES]. Extract every assumption (growth rates, prices, volumes, costs, hiring dates, payment timing, tax rates, exchange rates). Present them in a table: ID | Assumption | Value | Source (actual, quote, estimate, guess) | Confidence (high, medium, low) | Impact if wrong (the effect of a 10 percent change on profit, computed) | Owner | Review date. Rank assumptions by impact times uncertainty, and list the top five to test first with a cheap way to test each (pilot, customer conversation, supplier quote). Add a rule to update the log whenever actuals differ by more than 10 percent, and a short template to record changes with date and reason. Finish with three assumptions that look optimistic and why. Keep each assumption to one sentence, number them A1, A2 and so on so they can be referenced in the forecast, and flag any assumption that appears in more than one place with different values. Mark the results as estimates, since they come only from the inputs I have shared. It stops short of accounting, tax, legal or investment advice. Please have a qualified accountant or adviser in [JURISDICTION] verify the figures and advice before use.
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