Scenario Planning for a Small Business
Compare best, base, and worst cases.
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Build three scenarios for the next 12 months. Base-case figures: [BASE_FIGURES]. Main uncertainties (lost customer, price change, new competitor, new hire): [UNCERTAINTIES]. Cash reserves and obligations: [CASH_AND_OBLIGATIONS]. Return a table with Base, Downside, and Upside columns showing assumptions that differ, revenue, direct costs, operating costs, profit, and ending cash, with arithmetic. In the downside, include a trigger list (what I will observe that tells me it is happening) and responses ordered by speed and cost. In the upside, list the constraints that could prevent capturing growth (capacity, cash for stock). Add: probability weights as my judgment only (labeled subjective) and the expected value computation; a decision list of actions that make sense in all scenarios; and a monthly check template. Do not invent probabilities or market data. Remind me this is planning support, not a prediction. For each scenario state the month in which cash is lowest and by how much, using the arithmetic, and name the earliest observable trigger (a number I can check in the first 30 days) that signals which scenario is unfolding. Frame the results as estimates that depend entirely on the inputs I provided above. The result is informational, not accounting, tax, legal or investment advice. Before you use this, a qualified accountant or financial adviser with knowledge of [JURISDICTION] should verify it.
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