Sales Forecast Call Prep: Commit, Best Case and Risk Review
Prepare a weekly sales forecast call with commit, best case and pipeline categories, deal risk questions and a forecast accuracy tracker.
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Help me prepare a forecast review. Team quota and period: [QUOTA_AND_PERIOD]. Deals under review (name, amount, stage, close date, owner, last activity, next step, buyer commitment): [DEAL_LIST]. Forecast categories we use: [FORECAST_CATEGORIES]. Closed so far this period: [CLOSED_TO_DATE]. History of forecast accuracy if known: [FORECAST_HISTORY]. Produce: a category definition table with the columns Category, Evidence required, Not allowed in this category; an analysis of my deal list that places each deal in a category based only on the evidence provided, with reasons, and flags where my category looks too optimistic; totals for commit, best case and the gap to quota, with the arithmetic; a risk questions list for each deal in commit (who is the buyer's champion, has the buyer confirmed a date, is the contract with legal, what could delay, what has the buyer done in the last 7 days); and a forecast accuracy tracker with the columns Week, Commit forecast, Final outcome, Error, Error percent. Add a short script for the manager to run the call in 30 minutes and a note to avoid pressure that encourages inflated forecasts. Suggest three actions to close the gap that depend on my data. Do not invent deal facts or outcomes. Treat probabilities as hypotheses. CRM report and forecasting features depend on your tool and edition and must be marked [VERIFY]. Customer information is confidential. Add a worked example with invented figures: quota 400,000, closed 180,000, commit 120,000, best case 150,000, and compute the gap, coverage and the error percent if a past commit of 140,000 ended at 110,000.
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Invented figures. Quota 400,000 minus closed 180,000 leaves a gap of 220,000. Commit 120,000 leaves 220,000 - 120,000 = 100,000 still uncovered by commit. Commit plus best case 150,000 gives 270,000 of possible deals, which is 270,000 / 220,000 = 1.23 times the gap. Past accuracy: commit forecast 140,000, outcome 110,000. Error = 30,000, or 30,000 / 140,000 = 21.4 percent over-forecast. Risk question for a commit deal: "What has the buyer done in the last seven days that shows they are moving toward signature?" If the answer is nothing, move the deal to best case until evidence appears.
Illustrative only, made-up data. Your results will differ and must be reviewed.