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Velocity and Forecasting Basics

Table output Has example

Forecast delivery from past data.

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Forecast delivery from past sprints. Completed items or story points per sprint: [VELOCITY_HISTORY]. Remaining backlog: [REMAINING_BACKLOG]. Sprint length and target date: [SPRINT_AND_TARGET].

Calculate, showing the arithmetic: average, minimum, maximum, and standard deviation of velocity; sprints needed = remaining backlog / velocity for pessimistic (minimum), average, and optimistic (maximum) cases; the end date for each; and, as a rough guide only, the share of the last sprints whose velocity would have met the target. If there are fewer than six sprints, say confidence is low.

Output format:
1. A table: Case | Velocity | Sprints needed | Finish date | Meets target?
2. A text burn-up table with a scope line, so added scope is visible.
3. Three recommendations (reduce scope, add time, or accept risk), each with its trade-off.
4. A message to stakeholders of about 100 words that gives the forecast as a range and states the main assumption.
5. Two sentences on why velocity is not a productivity measure and should not be compared across teams.

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Last six sprints (points): 21, 24, 19, 26, 22, 18. Average = 130 / 6 = 21.7. Min 18; max 26.
Standard deviation: deviations from 21.7: -0.7, 2.3, -2.7, 4.3, 0.3, -3.7; squares 0.49, 5.29, 7.29, 18.49, 0.09, 13.69 = 45.34; /5 = 9.07; sqrt = 3.0.
Remaining backlog 140 points. Sprints needed: pessimistic 140 / 18 = 7.8 (8); average 140 / 21.7 = 6.5 (7); optimistic 140 / 26 = 5.4 (6).
Two-week sprints from 5 May: 6 sprints = end 25 July; 7 = 8 Aug; 8 = 22 Aug.
Message: "Most likely 8 August; range 25 July to 22 August."
Velocity is not productivity. Track scope changes in a burn-up.

• forecasting