Linear Trend Forecast With Honest Caveats
Project a simple trend and state its limits.
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Create a simple forecast from historical data. The series and period: [SERIES]. Data frequency and history length: [FREQUENCY_HISTORY]. What the forecast will be used for: [USE]. Show how to plot the series, fit a linear trend with the built-in functions, and extend it for a chosen horizon. Add a simple error measure by holding back the last few points and comparing forecast with actual. Provide an approximate range around the forecast using the residual spread and explain that it is rough. List situations where a straight line is misleading (seasonality, structural changes, short history). Write a three-line note for stakeholders that presents the forecast as a range with assumptions, and avoid precise-looking numbers that suggest more certainty than the data support. Add a section on comparing the linear trend with a simple moving average and on agreeing a review date for the forecast. Add a simple example with an invented series of twelve points, the fitted trend and the forecast for the next three, labelled as an illustration and not as a prediction.
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